Considering All Factors for the Future

High, Low, & Plateau Points

Red Text = Economic

Blue Text = Political

Dominating Factors & Hidden Currents Table

Strong Opinions for Political Graph

With a new Presidential party in office, the number of Democrats has grown since 2008 and on to 2009, thus reducing the amount of Republicans in congress. We predicted that:

• By 2012 there will be less Democrats in office
• However, Democrats will still remain the dominant party
• Republicans could start to increase in office, depending on the success or failure of Obama’s presidential term.
  

Clearly, war activity is steadily declining due to Obama's Withdrawal Plan, therefore we've predicted the following:

• By 2012 there will be moderate war activity
• Continual slow withdrawal from war
• Increase in government debt (even post war)
• By 2012 government debt will be the highest over the six year period.

Political Standings Graph

Our scale for the U.S. involvement in the Iraq War is as follows:

0% = No War Activity

20% = Moderate War Involvement

40% = High War Involvement


The above graph was compiled from the following sources:

• (2002-2009). Politics, Political News, Headlines, Stories and Video. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/politics/

• (2005-2009). A TIMELINE OF THE IRAQ WAR. Retrieved from http://thinkprogress.org/iraq-timeline/

• (2007). CNN.com - America Votes 2006 - Midterm Elections. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/

• (2008). Election Center 2008 . Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/main.results/#S

• (2009). Democrats vs. Republicans: 50-50. Retrieved from http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2009/10/democrats_vs_republicans_5050_1.html 
  

• (2009). Anti-War Activists Disappointed With Obama's Iraq Withdrawal Plan. Retrieved from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/02/27/obamas-iraq-withdrawal-plan-disappoints-anti-war-activists/

• (2008). U.S. National Debt Forecast. Retrieved from http://www.forecast-chart.com/forecast-national-debt.html

• (2009, September 9). Timeline, 1990-2009 . Retrieved from http://usiraq.procon.org/viewresource.asp?resourceID=000670#war2007

Strong Opinions for Economic Graph

Clearly each factor has its high, low and plateau points throughout the six year period. Before the recession in 2007, the economy was booming, but the economy suddenly plummeted beginning in 2007.

After in depth research of qualitative and quantitative data, we've predicted that there will be an upturn in the United States national and global economy by 2012. With a slow withdrawal from war and recovering from the recession, our economy will most likely start to improve. In result:

• Unemployment will reach a plateau point
• Inflation will continue to fluctuate
• Population will continue to steadily increase
• Retail sales and exports will level out and rise after 2012
  

Economic Standings Graph

The graph above was compiled with the following sources:

• (2003-2009). Inflation Rate in Percent . Retrieved from http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

• U.S. Census Bureau, . (2009, August 5). Population Estimates. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.html

• (2005). The World Economic Crisis. Retrieved from http://www.globalpolicy.org/world-economic-crisis.html

• (2008). U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast. Retrieved from http://www.forecast-chart.com/forecast-unemployment-rate.html

• (2009). Economic News Release. Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/srgune.nr0.htm

• (2009). Economy. Retrieved from http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/index.php

Introduction to Political Context

Political information can also be a key indicator of what to except in the future as it can affect our economy and consumer behavior. Depending on who is in office, the dominating party in congress, what decisions are made on important local and global issues, the state of our economy, and our current policies can have negative or positive impacts on the fashion industry. We decided to include information on the number of Republican and Democrats in congress, the U.S. governmental debt, and U.S.’s involvement in Iraqi war. 

The amount of Democrats and Republicans in office is valuable information because each party has different views, goals, and interests. If Democrats are the majority, then their “liberal” views will dominate political decisions, such as pro-abortion, same sex marriage, and universal health care. Whereas Republicans are more conservative and usually against the above issues. 

U.S. governmental debt is also vital information because if it’s high, then usually the government will impose more taxes or implement ways of repaying its debt. If debt is low, then our economy is usually booming and there is more money for consumers to spend on luxury goods. Government debt also has a direct correlation with our country’s involvement in war. As war activity increases, debt will eventually sky rocket. Knowing whether or not our country is at war is a very key component in our economy and ultimately the fashion industry.

Introduction to Economic Context

The fashion industry is significantly affected by the national and global economy. Factors such as population, unemployment, exporting of goods, inflation rate, and retail sales all play a major role in the success and failures of the industry. After research, it was clear that there are many correlations between the economy and the above listed factors.

As a team, we decided to include the population increase and decrease (if any) on our graph. When there is an increase our economy benefits because there are more consumers to invest in markets (and vice versa). Whereas, it can be consequential because there are more people needing jobs, therefore unemployment rates would rise. Furthermore, unemployment can drastically affect the economy because this reflects the lack of success within the markets, simply because businesses aren’t making enough money to employ as many people.

We also decided to include the amount of goods exported from the U.S. to show the activity of our global economy. When the U.S. economy is profitable and successful, then the amount of exported goods would be high. This means that businesses are doing well, our economy is booming, and there is less unemployment (vice versa). Exports can also be influenced by the rate of inflation; when a country is experiencing inflation their currency is worth less, meaning it is more expensive to make and export goods.

Finally, retail sales play a significant role in our research and have a direct correlation with the factors mentioned above. With the economy in a recession, retail sales are significantly down. Clearly retail sales can affect the fashion industry in many ways and is crucial when forecasting.